With the COP28 climate summit currently underway in the United Arab Emirates, Michael Bey, a RANE senior analyst, referenced a report sent to Rigzone. Between now and December 12 of this year, the summit will promote discussions about critical areas of interest and the potential impact on the oil and gas industry. With the focal point being the Paris Agreement’s “global stocktake,” the group will analyze technical findings pointing to a lack of global progress in the fight against climate change.
“The global stocktake is a key part of the Paris Agreement that is used to assess its signatories’ collective progress in implementing and achieving the goals outlined in the 2015 climate pact,” said Bey. “On September 8, the United Nations released a synthesis of its technical dialogue of its first ‘global stocktake,’ which surprisingly found that although the Paris Agreement had significantly reduced forecasts of future global warming, the world was ‘not on track to meet the long-term goals’ of the international treaty.”
According to Bey, the report sent to Rigzone points to vast differences between countries seeking more significant financial support going green and those more developed countries pushing for large emitters to shore up and increase their climate commitments.
“COP28 will see the final phase of the global stocktake, known as the ‘consideration of outputs,’ where countries will meet and discuss the technical reports released by the United Nations earlier this year,” said Bey, referencing the Rigzone report. “The political outcome of the stocktake process at this year’s conference, and agreements made on how to accelerate or increase global climate ambitions, will then inform the next round of NDCs (nationally determined contributions) that are due in 2025.”
Fossil Fuel Future
The COP28 will address the elephant in the room, known to the world as the future of fossil fuels. Bey revealed that the Rigzone report suggests phasing out or slowing down their use.
“The technical findings in the United Nations’ global stocktake and annual emissions gap reports revealed a stark gap between the Paris Agreement’s goals and countries’ current actions toward combatting climate change,” said Bey. “…the West, and particularly the European Union, will use this gap to try to justify a global agreement on eventually ending the use of fossil fuels.”
Bey’s deductions are supported by the fact that the European Council was vocal in October. It took the position that unabated fossil fuels on a global level should be phased out.
“Most developing countries will likely find such language as hostile, preferring to instead use softer language like ‘phasing down,” which implies countries only need to reduce their ‘unabated’ fossil fuel consumption as opposed to eventually ending it all together.”
Referencing the Rigzone report, Bey deduced that the West will concentrate on strengthening global commitments during the COP28. At the same time, the developing faction will focus on securing financing needed to combat climate change. He indicated the Paris Agreement is centered around the belief that wealthier countries should assist in funding the energy transition in developing areas.
“Developing countries failed to reach a 2009 commitment to increase global fiancé support to $100 billion by 202,” said Bey. “The West eventually reached that target in 2022. However, the U.N. global stocktake report still identified large gaps in climate financing, which China, India, Saudi Arabia, and other members of the so-called LMDCs will likely use at COP28 to push for the establishment of a new similar pledge of financing by 2030 or 2035 with a higher annual headline figure.”
Rigzone received a second report earlier in the week outlining the COP28 summit. Standard Chartered analysts added that in addition to the summit’s itinerary, OPEC+ will be meeting.
“Some elements of the dialogue between energy consumers and energy producers have proved a source of diplomatic tension in advance of COP28,” said Standard Chartered analysts in the report. “A statement from the OPEC Secretariat on November 27 noted that the IEA has used its social media platforms to criticize energy producers in isolation in the run-up to the meeting. The OPEC statement observed ‘In a world where more dialogue is needed, we repeat that finger pointing is not a constructive approach’”
The COP28 has drawn a large and distinguished crowd with over 70,000 participants. Government officials, heads of state, and other prominent people will gather to collaborate on the effects of climate change and determine a resolution.
“COP28 UAE brings the world together at a critical moment for global transformative climate action,” notes the COP28 website. “To deliver on its ambitious agenda, COP28 will be inclusive, transparent, pragmatic, and results-oriented.”
Nick Vaccaro is a freelance writer and photographer. In addition to providing technical writing services, he is an HSE consultant in the oil and gas industry with twelve years of experience. Vaccaro also contributes to SHALE Oil and Gas Business Magazine, American Oil and Gas Investor, Oil and Gas Investor, Energies Magazine and Louisiana Sportsman Magazine. He has a BA in photojournalism from Loyola University and resides in the New Orleans area. Vaccaro can be reached at 985-966-0957 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
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